Average Winter
What is an average Tahoe winter? Statistically, that’s an easy question. Concerning snowfall: 8 feet by February 1 at Tahoe’s lake level; 11 feet by March 1; and over 14 feet by April 1, the day that statistics predict the deepest snowpack in the higher elevations.
But in my mind, the character of the winter is more important to its “average-ness” than any statistic. When you compare winters, did the inches of snowfall translate into bottomless powder days of skiing or riding, or did they dribble in mixed with rain? Was there in mid-February an incredible week of spring temps that produced corn snow, quickly followed by a bonding series of storms and two weeks of deep powder? This is the season’s character, and it tells more than statistics.
Out of the Tahoe winters I’ve known, the two from 1981 to ‘83 are instructive of averages. Everyone talks about the winter of 1981–82 because of the Alpine Meadows, Jakes Peak and Freel Peak avalanches, but the next winter, ‘82–’83, had almost the same amount of snowfall. The way I experienced them, things were rolling along in more-or-less average fashion in ‘81–’82 until late-March, when the heavens opened up and dumped 19 feet of snow at my West Shore home. The next winter, it seemed to just piddled all the time. Sure, we had a few good powder days, but the continual gray skies made ‘82–’83 much below average.
This winter, the snow clouds of late-January finally ended what had been a statistically dry year, putting precipitation totals at or above average in most of the Sierra. And on the whole, at mid-season, this winter feels pretty average; in other words, the conditions are great, with a handful of memorable powder days. After all, one’s memories of an average year may be anything but average. And at Tahoe, average is plenty good!
One thing I might remember about this winter to date is something my fellow TQ blogger, Alison, points out: It has been damn cold. There were multiple minus-zero nights at my house in January. The average low for Tahoe during January is 19 degrees, so it’s not like it doesn’t get cold at this time of year. But it does seem to me that during recent winters we’ve seen more storms head straight south from Alaska than in the past, rather than traveling West to East. At times, the jet stream has zig-zagged north and south across the continent like the switchbacks of a mountain road. Is this part of the unpredictability of global warming? How should I know?
Even if global warming, for some perverse reason, brings Tahoe more cold, dry snow, it still sucks. But then again, my mantra is: Enjoy the present.